Chance
Chance
Chance is about how likely something is to happen. Some things will happen, some will not happen, and some might happen.
The three chance words
We use three special phrases to describe chance: ā¢ will happen ā it is certain (for example, a baby will cry). ā¢ will not happen ā it is impossible (for example, a carrot will walk). ā¢ might happen ā it is possible but not certain (for example, it might rain tomorrow).
Even chance
Sometimes two results are just as likely as each other. When you toss a fair coin, heads and tails are equally likely ā this is called an even chance.
The likelihood scale
A likelihood scale is a line that shows how likely something is. 'Will not happen' goes on the far left, 'will happen' goes on the far right, and 'might happen' goes in between, closer to the end that matches how likely it is.
Worked examples
An event that will happen
- Think: is this event certain?
- The sun rising tomorrow is certain.
Answer: This event will happen.
An event that will not happen
- Think: could this event ever really happen?
- A carrot cannot walk.
Answer: This event will not happen.
An event that might happen
- Think: is it certain? No. Is it impossible? No.
- It could rain tomorrow, or it might stay dry.
Answer: This event might happen.
An even chance
- You toss a fair coin.
- Heads is just as likely as tails.
Answer: There is an even chance of heads or tails.
Where you see this in real life
- Deciding if you need an umbrella when rain might happen.
- Knowing a dice will land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6.
- Guessing whether a coin toss will be heads or tails.
- Saying it is certain the sun will set this evening.
Key words
- Chance
- How likely it is that something will happen.
- Will happen
- The event is certain ā it is sure to happen.
- Will not happen
- The event is impossible ā it cannot happen.
- Might happen
- The event is possible but not certain.
- Even chance
- Two results that are just as likely as each other.
- Likelihood scale
- A line that shows how likely an event is.